Lion (Panthera leo) demographics in the south-western Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park

Abstract

Changes in demographic features of the lion population in the south-western Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park cause conservation concern. The ratio between adult males and females changed from 1♂:2♀ to 1♂:1♀ over a 32-year period (1977–2010). This is atypical for undisturbed lion populations. We evaluated mechanisms that on their own or together could explain the trend by using both a discrete- and continuous- time capture–recapture model to analyse 2 years of individual-based observation data (May 2013–June 2015). Although most vital rates were within expected parameters, shifts in the sex structure remained similar to that reported for subadults previously. The population comprised of 26.9% cubs and juveniles (<2 years), 14.2% sub-adults (2–4 years) and 59% adults (>4 years). Litters had equal sex ratios at first detection. Birth rates were lower (0.44 cubs per female per year) than between 1998 and 2001 (0.69 cubs per female per year). The continuous model indicated a higher survival effect for female cubs, while both models showed higher survival rates/effects for sub-adult and adult females relative to males. However, the sex ratio for sub-adults was male-biased. The shift in demographic signals may associate with changes in age-related immigration rates of sub-adult males.