Trade openness and food security nexus in South Africa: a vector error correction analysis

Abstract

This study investigates how trade openness affects food security in South Africa from 2000 to 2021. Using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the study analyses short-run and long-run impacts of trade policies on national food security, particularly within the context of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Findings indicate that trade openness improves food security in the short-run, largely due to increased agricultural exports. However, the long-run effects are more nuanced, influenced by factors such as exchange rates, inflation, and agricultural investment. The study highlights the need for policies that support both trade expansion and economic stability, recommending an export-led growth approach to enhance food security.