Future grain crops

Abstract

Although the second industrial revolution has been credited with increased crop output, this has largely had a negative impact on the environment, which has, in turn, led to global arming. Nontheless, palaeoclimatic studies indicate that the earth is not experiencing climate change for the first time in its history. Scientists are now beginning to understand the far-reaching and devastating effects of this phenomenon. A decline in agricultural production, food and nutrition insecurity, loss of livelihoods, and biodiversity; among others are some of the casualties of this phenomenon. The recent outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic has changed life as we know it conceivably forever. The negative effects of this pandemic on agricultural production and consequently food and nutrition security are imminent. Stephens et al. (2020) identified food and nutrition security, farm labor availability, farm system resilience, and agricultural connectivity as some of the immediate concerns of the pandemic. Elleby et al. (2020) estimated that although the consumption of food during the pandemic remained unaffected, a 7%–8% and 4%–7% decline in meat prices and dairy products respectively was expected. This would be followed by a decline in maize, feedstocks, and oilseed. However, according to the same authors, a carbon emission reduction from agricultural production was estimated at 1% in comparison to the same period in the previous year. Due to the lockdown regulations resulting from the pandemic, reports of the IMF (2020), OECD (2020), and the World Bank (2020) estimated a reduction in global GDP in the range of 3%–7% in the year 2020 and an increase in the range 2.8%–5.8% in 2021. The social distancing measures that are being enforced globally bring a new set of production challenges. However, people still need food on their tables. According to Laborde et al. (2020), the economic downturn of the world is expected to drive the number of people living in extreme poverty to 20% and this translates to 140 million people. Reports indicate that the global population will rise from the current (2021) 7.8 billion to about 8.6 and 9.8 billion by 2030 and 2050, respectively (UN/DESA United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2019). According to the same report, a third of this growth is projected at already struggling third world countries and Africa tops this list. This growth is expected to increase food demand from 59% to 98% between 2005 and 2050 meaning that more food will need to be produced to meet this demand (Valin et al., 2013). This is an increase from an earlier FAO (2009) report. Cereal production needs to be increased by 40% within the same period to meet the aforementioned demand (FAO, 2009). A recent study has shown that there is a decrease in the number of new and young farmers. For example, farmers older than 65 outnumber those younger than 45 by a ratio greater than two (Kumar, 2018). This means a threat to the continued production of food in the long run. More young people need to be brought into the farming business to ensure continued food production. Humans need a source of carbohydrates/energy, protein as well as vitamins and minerals for growth and development. These are provided by the food they consume. The source of energy is mostly referred to as a staple since it dominates a portion of the standard diet and is supplied in large quantities at any given time (Su et al., 2017). The relish is there to supplement the staple with protein and some essential vitamins and minerals. Some important sources of energy are cereal grains, root/tuber crops, and legumes, and these supply approximately 90% of the world’s carbohydrate requirements (Bender and Smith, 1997).