Why we are heading for a further power crisis

Abstract

The Update to the Integrated Resource Plan 2010 [IRP2010 Update] has generally been well-received. In the light of evidence that the basis for the original IRP was too rigid, the Update is far more flexible in its approach. It has examined a wider range of scenarios. It has abandoned multi-criterion decision analysis, which had been the subject of much criticism on grounds of subjectivity, in favour of developing “a proposed path of least regret, incorporating the benefits of flexibility, and identify(ing) decision trees that consider the key determinants in decisions required and the proposed solutions under different outcomes of these determinants.” However, it appears to suffer from a fatal flaw, namely that by focusing on capacity and the ability to meet the peak demand, it has overlooked the need to provide adequate energy to meet the day-to-day demands. The data provided in the Update are reinterpreted in terms of annual energy produced, and it is shown that each of the four primary scenarios which were considered leads in a drastic drop in the energy margin after 2020. Under some perfectly credible assumptions, the energy margin becomes negative in the mid-2020’s. Because this is within the short-term planning horizon for the provision of power, it strongly suggests that decisions must be taken immediately to introduce at least another 500MW of generating capacity every year from 2018 to 2027. Failure to address this urgently means that our electricity supply will revert to a critical state in under ten years.