Validation of TRNSYS modelling for a fixed slope photovoltaic panel

Abstract

TRNSYS stands for transient system simulation software. This paper describes a procedure that was used to validate a TRNSYS model for estimating electricity yields from a fixed slope photovoltaic (PV) panel. The objective was to find how close to reality predicted energy yield for a specified panel can be, at a location near one of the weather stations listed in the software’s database. The software was used to predict daily total incident radiation on a horizontal plane and electrical energy yields from a 90 Wp panel when sloped at 34 ◦ facing north at a test site in Cape Town, South Africa. The panel and other system components were then installed and tested to give actual electrical energy yields. The site was 5 km from a TRNSYS listed weather station. A local weather station logging 10-min data of actual total incident radiation on a horizontal plane enabled comparison with the model’s estimate. Analysis of electrical energy yield gave statistical kappa values of 0.722 and 0.944 at actual to model acceptance ratio levels of 90% and 80%, respectively. Regression analysis of measured and model incident horizontal plane energy gave a coefficient of 0.782 across the year. It was thus concluded that within limits of meteorological phenomena behaviour, TRNSYS modelling reliably predicted energy yields from the PV panel installed in the neighbourhood of one of the software’s listed stations.