Agricultural exports and economic growth in South Africa: a cointegration and error correction analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the role of agricultural exports as a potential engine of economic growth in South Africa, employing a cointegration and error correction model (ECM) framework on time series data from 1980 to 2023. The results confirm a long-run equilibrium relationship between agricultural exports and economic growth, with lagged total exports and employment significantly influencing GDP growth in the short run. However, other factors like foreign direct investment, gross capital formation, and population growth did not exhibit a statistically significant impact. These findings underscore the importance of agricultural exports in driving South Africa’s economic growth. To further enhance this potential, the study recommends establishing a consistent and transparent policy environment to foster investor confidence and long-term planning in the agricultural sector, expanding the range of agricultural exports to reduce vulnerability to external shocks and enhance overall economic resilience and streamlining customs procedures, reducing trade barriers, and improving logistics to enhance the competitiveness of South African agricultural exports in the global market. These policy recommendations, grounded in empirical evidence, offer a roadmap for harnessing the full potential of agricultural exports to drive sustainable economic growth in South Africa.