Empowering distribution system operators: a review of distributed energy resource forecasting techniques

Abstract

Effective management of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and optimization of grid operations are crucial responsibilities of Distribution System Operators (DSOs). Hence, this comprehensive critical review aims to analyze the current state of DER forecasting practices for DSOs and their implications for achieving the SDG goals. These goals underscore the significance of clean and accessible energy, advancements in infrastructure, sustainable urban development, climate change mitigation, and collaborative partnerships. The review’s core focuses on the DER forecasting techniques employed by DSOs. It explores various aspects, including data collection methods, load forecasting models, DER generation forecasting, aggregation and integration techniques, and the role of advanced technologies like machine learning and artificial intelligence. The review highlights the critical role of accurate DER forecasts in optimizing grid operations, managing energy flows, and facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources. Furthermore, the review examines the implications of DER forecasting for DSOs in achieving the SDGs. It discusses how DER forecasting facilitates the transition to affordable and clean energy, enhances industry innovation and infrastructure, builds sustainable cities and communities, drives climate action efforts, and fosters stakeholder partnerships. However, the review also identifies challenges and limitations in DER forecasting, including data availability, forecasting accuracy, uncertainty management, and regulatory barriers. It emphasizes further research and development in improved forecasting algorithms, advanced data analytics, and enhanced communication and coordination mechanisms. Finally, this comprehensive critical review highlights the importance of DER forecasting for DSOs in achieving the SDGs. Accurate forecasting can promote sustainable and clean energy practices, drive innovation, build resilient communities, mitigate climate change, and foster collaborative partnerships. The review emphasizes the necessity of advancing DER forecasting techniques and addressing associated challenges to fully realize the potential of DERs in contributing to a sustainable and inclusive future. This comprehensive critical review aims to analyze the current state of DER forecasting practices for DSOs and their implications for achieving the SDG goals. As Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) play an increasingly significant role in the transition to sustainable energy systems, accurate forecasting techniques are essential for optimizing grid operations and facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources. By effectively managing DERs, Distribution System Operators (DSOs) contribute to the advancement of several SDGs, including affordable and clean energy (SDG 7), sustainable infrastructure (SDG 9), climate action (SDG 13), and partnerships for the goals (SDG 17). This review explores the intersection of DER forecasting with the SDGs, highlighting how forecasting initiatives can support national and global efforts toward sustainable development by providing insights into energy demand, grid stability, and renewable energy integration. The goals and targets are derived from an analysis of current trends and the identification of potential development scenarios by 2030. Both optimistic and pessimistic projections are utilized for communicating with the general public and national governments concerning DSM network planning. Utilizing data from various nations enables the identification of effective strategies and the prediction of similar trends in other areas. Simultaneously, the magnitude of activities related to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) enables the improvement and efficient organization of data gathering on a global basis. This, in turn, provides a foundation for future forecasting endeavours.