Implications of ecological drivers on roan antelope populations in Mokala National Park, South Africa

Abstract

Climate change has massive global impacts and affects a wide range of species. Threatened species such as the roan antelope (Hippotragus equinus) are particularly vulnerable to these changes because of their ecological requirements. Attempts to address concerns about the roan’s vulnerability have not been well documented in South African protected areas. This study identifies the landscape use and distribution of the roan as well as habitat and forage suitability changes to help inform management decisions for the conservation of roan. We used fine- and broad-scale data from Mokala National Park, South Africa that includes roan occurrence data, vegetation condition indices, vegetation (structure and plant species composition), elevation and temperature differences, and precipitation strata to construct a suitability framework using the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) and Random Forest statistical package. In Mokala National Park, roan occurred in the Schmidtia pappophoroides–Vachellia erioloba sparse woodland, Senegalia mellifera–Vachellia erioloba closed woodland, Senegalia mellifera–Vachellia tortilis open shrubland, Vachellia erioloba–V. tortilis closed woodland and Rhigozum obovatum–Senegalia mellifera open shrubland. The veld (vegetation) condition index (VCI) improved from 2019 (VCI < 50%) to 2021 (VCI > 60%), with the proportion of palatable grass species (Schmidtia pappophoroides and Eragrostis lehmanniana) also increasing. This study identified four key climatic conditions affecting roan distribution, namely annual mean daily temperature range, temperature seasonality, minimum temperatures of the coldest month, and precipitation of the wettest month. These results suggest that the conservation of roan antelope should consider these key variables that affect their survival in preferred habitats and foraging areas in anticipation of changing ecological conditions.