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Title: A rework probability model: a quantitative assessment of rework occurrence in construction projects
Authors: Simpeh, Eric Kwame 
Ndihokubwayo, Ruben 
Love, Peter E.D 
Thwala, Wellington D 
Keywords: Contract value;Generalized Pareto distribution;South Africa;Total rework costs
Issue Date: 2015
Publisher: International Journal of Construction Management
Source: Eric K. Simpeh, Ruben Ndihokubwayo, Peter E.D. Love & Wellington Didibhuku Thwala (2015) A rework probability model: a quantitative assessment of rework occurrence in construction projects, International Journal of Construction Management, 15:2, 109-116, DOI: 10.1080/15623599.2015.1033814
Abstract: Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions were used to analyse the data collected from 78 construction professionals. The empirical distributions for rework costs were found to be non-Gaussian. Theoretical probability distributions were fitted to the rework data. Non-parametric tests were used to determine the goodness-of-fit of the selected probability distributions. The results of the goodness-of-fit tests revealed that generalized Pareto distribution provided the best fit for the dataset. Single probability points for rework from 1% to 10% were calculated. It was established that rework can make a significant contribution to a project's cost overrun. The mean total rework cost as a percentage of the original contract value was found to be 5.12%. For a mean total rework cost of 5.12% the likelihood that a project exceeds is 76%. The anticipation that rework will occur, using the probabilities that are derived, can enable a quantitative risk assessment to be undertaken, which will ultimately lead to identifying alternative solutions so as to avoid rework prior to the commencement of construction work.
ISSN: 1562-3599
Appears in Collections:Eng - Journal articles (DHET subsidised)

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